Week one brought bad news for the owners of several trendy pre-season fantasy rushers, namely: David Wilson, Montee Ball, Giovani Bernard, and Stevan Ridley. All four were drafted with high expectations and all four disappointed in their first chance at game action in 2013.
Wilson's severe fumbilitis saw him benched early and he never found the field again. The Giants, playing mostly from behind, leaned heavily on Eli Manning and a passing attack led by Victor Cruz and Brandon Myers. Tom Coughlin keeps his rushers on a notoriously short leash when it comes to holding on to the football, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Giants add a free agent to help with ball-carrying duties until Andre Brown returns from a broken leg. The names we've all heard are Willis McGahee, Joe McKnight, and Brandon Jacobs. Between the three, I think McGahee is the most interesting. He is a proven back who can produce and probably still has enough left in the tank to help your fantasy team. I think if the Giants don't make a roster move this week, however, they're going to give Wilson another chance. So we should know soon how this situation will play out.
Montee Ball, however, is a different case. Ball saw the field and was relatively productive, but he remains part of a backfield that is all-too-crowded for fantasy goodness. Knowshon Moreno saw the most snaps and, in my opinion, continues to be the Denver back you want, at least in the short term.
Giovani Bernard actually had the best week, the only problem was he simply didn't receive enough touches. When he carried the ball, he performed well, averaging upwards of 5 YPC. I think the Bengals will look to get him more involved as the season progresses, and of the entire above list, he is the most interesting player to me.
Ridley did his best David Wilson impression and quickly lost his gig to Shane Vereen. Fortunately for Ridley owners, Vereen injured his wrist and will need surgery. While Brandon Boldin remains in the mix, I would be surprised if the Patriots don't give Ridley at least one more chance based on his strong 2012 campaign. When Vereen returns, however, all bets are off. If I was using Ridley as an RB2 or, in some deeper leagues, an RB1, I would be seriously concerned.
These four situations all warrant keeping an eye on moving forward, and week two should provide us more insight as to the fantasy value of each. I would consider Bernard and Wilson both good Buy-Low candidates, but in the case of Ridley and Ball, if you own them, you're probably stuck with them for the time being.
Showing posts with label fantasyfootball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label fantasyfootball. Show all posts
Wednesday, September 11, 2013
Sunday, September 8, 2013
Chicago Bears: Enter the Trestman
The Chicago Bears knocked off the Cincinnati Bengals to win their 2013 opener at home 24-21.
And it was all because of Marc Trestman.
There, I said it.
How can I make such a sweeping claim so boldly and with such absolute certainty? Sunday's week one victory, to me, boils down to three key factors:
1) The emergence of Jake Long and Jordan Mills at right Guard/Tackle, respectively, and the decision to start them.
2) Clock management at the end of the first half.
3) Trusting the offense to make plays instead of trusting the defense to save the game.
Taking each case one at a time, let's compare the new regime to the Lovie Smith Bears.
1) Long and Mills
Lovie's predilection against starting rookies was well-documented, as was his lack of ability to effectively evaluate and draft offensive talent; it was simply never "his thing." Let's be honest: if Lovie were still here, would Long even be playing? Would he even be on the team? I suspect instead we'd still see J'Marcus Webb under contract. That Phil Emery was able to find what appear to be, for all intents and purposes, two starter-quality offensive linemen in the same draft is truly impressive. But perhaps even more so is the coaching staff's ability to develop both Jake Long and Jordan Mills as rapidly and with as much success as they have had thus far in the young season. Their contribution is immediately apparent: in the key fourth-quarter fourth-and-inches call, Trestman and offensive coordinator Aaron Kromer called a run... to the right... with the game on the line... behind two rookies... and it worked.
It's hard to believe, but that fourth-and-short trust with the game on the line wasn't even the most impressive contribution from Long and Mills. No, the most telling stat is this: Zero. Sacks. The Bengals have one of the best defensive lines in football - the front four alone were responsible for 43 of the team's 51 sacks in 2012. Today? A couple of rookies, an aging center, and two first-year free agents blanked them. Cutler wasn't sacked once. In four years under Lovie, Cutler was sacked an average of 2.64 times per game. So far under Trestman? A clean slate.
2) Clock Management
Look, I'm not a Lovie hater. I actually liked him. He won. It wasn't pretty. Sometimes, it was downright grotesque. But he was a winner. Still, even the staunchest Lovie lovers wouldn't argue: he was terrible at managing the clock in key moments... on both sides of the ball.
Enter Marc Trestman. With 37 seconds left until half and down by a score, WWLD? (What would Lovie do?) I'll tell you what Lovie would do: he'd take a damn knee. Over and over again, he'd take a damn knee instead of running a play or two.
Instead, Trestman pressed and found a way. The Bears pulled closer on a 58-yard Robbie Gould record-setting field goal to enter halftime down four instead of seven.
Oh, by the way, what was their ultimate margin of victory? Tell me that final score, again?
3) In O We Trust
Close game. Late. Fourth and 1. Down four. Inside field goal range. WWLD? He'd kick the field goal and trust his defense to get a stop. What would Trestman do? He'd let Forte get him the couple inches on the aforementioned right-side run. He'd trust his playmaker to make a play.
The very next snap? Jay Cutler to Brandon Marshall. 19 yards. Touchdown.
And the rest, as they say, is history.
And it was all because of Marc Trestman.
There, I said it.
How can I make such a sweeping claim so boldly and with such absolute certainty? Sunday's week one victory, to me, boils down to three key factors:
1) The emergence of Jake Long and Jordan Mills at right Guard/Tackle, respectively, and the decision to start them.
2) Clock management at the end of the first half.
3) Trusting the offense to make plays instead of trusting the defense to save the game.
Taking each case one at a time, let's compare the new regime to the Lovie Smith Bears.
1) Long and Mills
Lovie's predilection against starting rookies was well-documented, as was his lack of ability to effectively evaluate and draft offensive talent; it was simply never "his thing." Let's be honest: if Lovie were still here, would Long even be playing? Would he even be on the team? I suspect instead we'd still see J'Marcus Webb under contract. That Phil Emery was able to find what appear to be, for all intents and purposes, two starter-quality offensive linemen in the same draft is truly impressive. But perhaps even more so is the coaching staff's ability to develop both Jake Long and Jordan Mills as rapidly and with as much success as they have had thus far in the young season. Their contribution is immediately apparent: in the key fourth-quarter fourth-and-inches call, Trestman and offensive coordinator Aaron Kromer called a run... to the right... with the game on the line... behind two rookies... and it worked.
It's hard to believe, but that fourth-and-short trust with the game on the line wasn't even the most impressive contribution from Long and Mills. No, the most telling stat is this: Zero. Sacks. The Bengals have one of the best defensive lines in football - the front four alone were responsible for 43 of the team's 51 sacks in 2012. Today? A couple of rookies, an aging center, and two first-year free agents blanked them. Cutler wasn't sacked once. In four years under Lovie, Cutler was sacked an average of 2.64 times per game. So far under Trestman? A clean slate.
2) Clock Management
Look, I'm not a Lovie hater. I actually liked him. He won. It wasn't pretty. Sometimes, it was downright grotesque. But he was a winner. Still, even the staunchest Lovie lovers wouldn't argue: he was terrible at managing the clock in key moments... on both sides of the ball.
Enter Marc Trestman. With 37 seconds left until half and down by a score, WWLD? (What would Lovie do?) I'll tell you what Lovie would do: he'd take a damn knee. Over and over again, he'd take a damn knee instead of running a play or two.
Instead, Trestman pressed and found a way. The Bears pulled closer on a 58-yard Robbie Gould record-setting field goal to enter halftime down four instead of seven.
Oh, by the way, what was their ultimate margin of victory? Tell me that final score, again?
3) In O We Trust
Close game. Late. Fourth and 1. Down four. Inside field goal range. WWLD? He'd kick the field goal and trust his defense to get a stop. What would Trestman do? He'd let Forte get him the couple inches on the aforementioned right-side run. He'd trust his playmaker to make a play.
The very next snap? Jay Cutler to Brandon Marshall. 19 yards. Touchdown.
And the rest, as they say, is history.
Monday, December 3, 2012
Hypothetical 2013 RB/WR Rankings
Hypothetical 2013 Fantasy Football Draft Rankings - RB and WR
Why not? Per a conversation with a close friend over the weekend, I thought it might be interesting to take a look at next year's top-10 by position for the two major flex-eligible categories: RB and WR.
Running Back
1. Arian Foster
2. Doug Martin
3. Adrian Peterson
4. Trent Richardson
5. CJ Spiller
6. Ray Rice
7. Marshawn Lynch
8. Alfred Morris
9. Jamaal Charles
10. Frank Gore
Notes:
-Ray Rice falls because, simply, he hasn't been the same player in 2012. More importantly, despite a few clutch runs (or catch+runs) in the past couple weeks, the Ravens just refuse to lean on him more heavily.
-CJ Spiller is an interesting name, and even more so if Fred Jackson leaves town.
-Alfred Morris assumes job security in Washington, which has been the case thus far in 2012. I can't see why it wouldn't continue as long as he continues to perform.
-If Bryce Brown gets a starting gig ANYWHERE, he immediately moves into the top 10, probably after Richardson at number 4.
-Doug Martin is explosive and gets a ton of touches. Greg Schiano uses him a lot like the aforementioned Rice at Rutgers. Kinda fun to watch.
Wide Receiver
1. AJ Green
2. Calvin Johnson
3. Brandon Marshall
4. Demaryius Thomas
5. Percy Harvin
6. Dez Bryant
7. Julio Jones
8. Andre Johnson
9. Wes Welker
10. Hakeem Nicks
Notes:
-I had a very difficult time at number 10. Vincent Jackson? Cecil Shorts?(!) Victor Cruz? All viable options. If Nicks finishes 2012 strong(er than Cruz?) then I think he's the number 10 headed into next season. Obviously, this is entirely speculative and offseason considerations (where does Greg Jennings land?) could have their say. Not to mention, I am still curious to see how Pierre Garcon completes his season, too.
-Dez Bryant might even belong somewhere in the top-5 based entirely on potential.
-Many Julio Jones owners would describe his 2012 as "disappointing", but he is still easily inside the top-10 in scoring for the season (standard-scoring leagues).
Why not? Per a conversation with a close friend over the weekend, I thought it might be interesting to take a look at next year's top-10 by position for the two major flex-eligible categories: RB and WR.
Running Back
1. Arian Foster
2. Doug Martin
3. Adrian Peterson
4. Trent Richardson
5. CJ Spiller
6. Ray Rice
7. Marshawn Lynch
8. Alfred Morris
9. Jamaal Charles
10. Frank Gore
Notes:
-Ray Rice falls because, simply, he hasn't been the same player in 2012. More importantly, despite a few clutch runs (or catch+runs) in the past couple weeks, the Ravens just refuse to lean on him more heavily.
-CJ Spiller is an interesting name, and even more so if Fred Jackson leaves town.
-Alfred Morris assumes job security in Washington, which has been the case thus far in 2012. I can't see why it wouldn't continue as long as he continues to perform.
-If Bryce Brown gets a starting gig ANYWHERE, he immediately moves into the top 10, probably after Richardson at number 4.
-Doug Martin is explosive and gets a ton of touches. Greg Schiano uses him a lot like the aforementioned Rice at Rutgers. Kinda fun to watch.
Wide Receiver
1. AJ Green
2. Calvin Johnson
3. Brandon Marshall
4. Demaryius Thomas
5. Percy Harvin
6. Dez Bryant
7. Julio Jones
8. Andre Johnson
9. Wes Welker
10. Hakeem Nicks
Notes:
-I had a very difficult time at number 10. Vincent Jackson? Cecil Shorts?(!) Victor Cruz? All viable options. If Nicks finishes 2012 strong(er than Cruz?) then I think he's the number 10 headed into next season. Obviously, this is entirely speculative and offseason considerations (where does Greg Jennings land?) could have their say. Not to mention, I am still curious to see how Pierre Garcon completes his season, too.
-Dez Bryant might even belong somewhere in the top-5 based entirely on potential.
-Many Julio Jones owners would describe his 2012 as "disappointing", but he is still easily inside the top-10 in scoring for the season (standard-scoring leagues).
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